Navigating the AI Revolution: Lessons from History to Secure Your Future

Recently, I've noticed that WeChat public accounts have been flooded with content about ChatGPT. Every account seems to be discussing it, but most of them are simply selling anxiety about AI replacing humans.

Since everyone is taking that approach, I'll deliberately avoid being emotional about it. The anxiety is understandable—it's likely the first emotional reaction many people have after seeing how powerful ChatGPT is. But once emotions settle, many will begin to truly think about and wonder what the future holds for humanity.

I define this as an AI revolution. Why? Because the first characteristic of a revolution is destruction—comprehensive, profound, and significant destruction. Some people will benefit while others will be sacrificed. So people's attitudes depend on where they stand. A successful revolution also establishes a new order that improves upon the previous one.

This isn't our first technological revolution. What we're experiencing now has happened in the past. This idea comes from the book "The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation." Today, I want to introduce this book and explain how it uses industrial revolution history to help us predict what will happen in our current and future AI era.

I won't focus on storytelling. Instead, I'll emphasize what predictions we can draw from this book and what we should do to avoid being sacrificed.

What Happened in The Industrial Revolution

From the title, we can see that the main players in this revolution are capital, labor, and power. These three have different positions regarding technology. Initially, the interests of power and capital weren't aligned—authorities worried that replacement technologies would disrupt social stability. Later, as power structures changed and the bourgeoisie gained more political influence, governments and capital aligned, favoring widespread technology application. Only then did the industrial revolution truly begin.

During early industrialization, production profits soared while worker wages stagnated, widening income gaps. Most benefits went to capital owners because machines were still simple, replacing skills but not requiring high technical expertise from operators. As industrialization advanced and machines became more complex, replacement technologies evolved into enabling technologies. Workers' technical skills and educational backgrounds gained value, allowing ordinary people to truly feel technology's benefits. Eventually, mechanization's redistributive effects reached equilibrium—but the short-term cost was the sacrifice of some people's entire lifetimes.

Predictions for the AI Age

Based on this industrial revolution logic, I've summarized several predictions:

1. Technology Advancement is Inevitable: Driven by self-interest, countries won't passively fall behind; they'll develop technology regardless of short-term consequences.

2. Impact Determines Acceptance: People's attitudes toward technological progress depend on how it affects their income and opportunities. If technology eliminates jobs but brings better opportunities or fairer distribution, opposition will be minimal.

3. Short-term "Technology Traps": Despite long-term rebalancing, we'll likely experience periods of unemployment, class mobility challenges, income inequality, and rising populism.

4. Different Revolutionary Logic: Unlike the industrial revolution, where mechanization created operator jobs, today's automation is program-driven. Increasing automation likely means decreasing human participation, changing redistribution dynamics.

How to Avoid Short-Term Technology Traps

Now, let's discuss strategies governments and individuals can use to avoid short-term technology traps.

For governments:

1. Financial Support: Provide financial support to workers who lose jobs or experience wage decreases due to technological changes, such as minimum wage insurance.

2. Targeted Tax Exemptions: Tax exemptions targeting the working class, specifically labor income tax credits.

3. Regulatory Frameworks: Regulations that help ensure fair distribution of benefits.

4. Housing and Zoning Reform: Housing and zoning reforms to remove housing supply restrictions in prosperous areas.

5. Connectivity Improvements: Connectivity improvements—if transportation systems or information networks (like the metaverse) become more developed, they can better support remote work, connecting different regions and creating more job opportunities.

6. Educational Investment: Industrial revival in underdeveloped regions by shifting resources from physical capital to investment in people, particularly education.

For individuals:

1. Education and training. As Ted Chiang said, ChatGPT is essentially lossy compression, a blurry image of the internet. If people can achieve more lossless compression, understand principles, and extrapolate, they'll still be valuable. Of course, this is the current situation—perhaps someday AI will also achieve lossless compression, but we still have some time.

2. Migration—technological development isn't uniform. Highly developed regions may have high automation levels, while less developed regions lag behind. If people in developed regions can't find opportunities, they might look in less developed areas.

3. Proactive Career Changes: Don't wait until replacement day to be shocked. The earlier you change careers, the more opportunities you'll have because technological development takes time. Consider which jobs are less easily replaceable, such as those involving substantial non-pattern decision-making or complex interpersonal emotional work. Look around to see which industries are anxious and which are comfortable or even happy. Some will be sacrificed, but others will be given wings. The AI era won't shortchange those with ideas who are eager to learn.

Conclusion: Embracing the Future

These predictions and strategies can help broaden your perspective on navigating the coming changes. The technological revolution brings both challenges and opportunities—understanding historical patterns gives us tools to position ourselves advantageously in this transformative period. Don't be left behind in the dust—be the quick adapter who rides the wave of change instead of drowning beneath it.